Can China Save the World?
Globe and Mail declared on September 24, 2011 that by injecting 570 billion dollars in its economy during the recession of 2008 China saved the world economy from collapse and wondered if it will do so again during the current downturn. It may be noted that the U.S. injected nearly a trillion dollars in its economy with no clear uptick although many have argued without proof that it may have averted a much worse disaster.
Before wondering about saving the world this time we have to question the premise that China saved the world the last time. Yes, the injection of a large amount of cash in building infrastructure created employment there, supported industry and maintained growth momentum albeit on a slightly smaller scale and it helped the energy and raw material suppliers of Australia, Brazil, Russia and Canada. But it did nothing for much of the developing world, the consuming countries of Europe and America. In fact, by keeping its currency fixed at an artificially low level it exacerbated their problems. China followed the rule of Keynesian economics: the governments should save money in good times to reduce the possibility of overexpansion and spend during the recession to provide jobs to the people. The reason the massive state investment worked in China was that the country had money in the savings accounts of both the state and the citizens that it could spend. It did not work well in the U.S. and Europe because they had to borrow the money they used in their attempts to prop their economies. Keynes’ principle works only when both sides of the advice are followed. Disregarding the first part by cutting taxes in good times and causing the economy to balloon rather than building reserves and following the second part by borrowing to the hilt in bad times misrepresents the advice of the great economist and it does not work for long. Such misguided policies are the cause of recession in the U.S. and the current debt crisis in southern Europe.
If you look at the statistics, Chinese intervention in its economy did not save the economy of the West any more than buying American bonds saved the U.S. from bankruptcy. Any yardstick you look at, the situation is worse in the resource poor industrial countries than it was at any time in this millennium. The incomes are declining and the employment situation is unprecedented – 16% real unemployment would be scary in a socialist economy, in a capitalist country with the social philosophy of every one on his own it is catastrophic. The clamour for change in Washington and the increasing support for the contradictory policies advocated by TEA party are the symptoms not only of the decline of a once great country but also of a desperate population ready for measures certain to be disastrous in the long term.
The truth is that China has saved its economy by its self-serving policies while hammering a nail in the economic coffin of the West. Without the revival of manufacturing industries and with continued shifting of the technical and managerial jobs to the East, the only jobs available to a large portion of the population are serving hamburgers and loading shelves in Wal-Mart with cheap goods made in China and they are unlikely to satisfy ambitious Americans for long. Replacement of middle class used to buying bigger and better cars and homes every few years by hordes of college graduates scraping an existence on two or more part time minimum wage jobs in a country with the military might to destroy the planet several times over should cause more anxiety about the future of humanity than it seems to be doing. While growth of China along with the growth in the West as dreamed by leaders of recent years would have been a most welcome development, recent events have demonstrated that the domination of China is increasing over declining Western economies. This is a portent of major conflict in the offing because a nation with the pride and destructive capacity of the U.S., including the ability to kill anyone anywhere by missiles fired from remote controlled unmanned aircraft, will not tolerate economic subjugation for long.
Comment of the Week
True love can stand the onslaught of intolerance and impatience.
Friday, September 30, 2011
Friday, September 23, 2011
Stock Market Gyrations:
The stock market indices all over the world had a precipitous drop this week. Thursday’s close was the bottom it hit in August after nearly 20% drop within a few days. For a month since then it has gyrated within a five hundred point range touching that bottom again at Thursday’s close. If the index closes on Friday a hundred points below Thursday’s mark, expect it to drop another five hundred points before forming a platform. Where it will go from there is any one’s guess.
What should an investor do in this environment? Honestly I don’t know. I won’t blame any one for folding his tent and going home. It depends on your ability to stand after taking some blows. That said, my hunch is that the things will not be as bad as in 2008. I think that most companies, even the financial institutions, are in a better place now than they were then. Companies in other business sectors are much better placed with much less debt and generally strong cash positions. Balance sheets are much stronger and even if some Euro national debts are downgraded and some banks fail, there is no danger of debt market seizing again.
I am staying put in the market expecting a revival in the prices of good companies sooner or later and continued payment of dividends in almost all of them. To enhance the prospects of capital gains my portfolio has a sprinkling of small companies which are takeover candidates. I have no assurance that the portfolio will keep its value in the short term nor the certainty that it won’t recover to some extent next week. The problem investors have is the unpredictability of the markets and that when they go up you have to be in the game to enjoy it. I do have complete faith that in the long term the stay put investors will be smiling. There is just too much money floating around to stay on the sidelines for long.
I am sorry I am not offering any firm advice. One final word: if you are losing sleep over it, sit down with your financial advisor and decide on a course of action that will get rid of the creeping insomnia.
Government Budgets:
Why does every Conservative leader emphasize cutting deficits by reducing essential services and public service employment? This is not the only way to balance the budgets. It can be done just as well by increasing taxes, marginally in many instances. This may reduce sale of some luxury items but will keep more people employed and will reduce the possibility of recession. Let us face it. poorer schools, less Medicare, crumbling transport infrastructure and lax regulation and law enforcement hurts business more than the general population.
As for debts, if the governments of countries most in debt taxed appropriately and the citizens paid the taxes they owed, the problem wouldn’t be there. For debt and budget problems in the U.S. and Europe blame the cowardice of the leaders of last two decades, not eliminate the jobs of people who have been working hard in difficult circumstances.
Response to the speech of the President of Iran at the U.N.:
United States has never done anything wrong and never will. Americans have always set an example and most people are happy to follow them. Anyone who says anything different should have his mouth sealed for good and be made to attend TEA party rallies for the rest of his life.
You won’t believe it!
Netanyahu informed a private meeting of his supporters in Washington that he turned down Harper’s request to join the Union of Israel because there is nothing in it for him and that he will present Obama’s application to the Knesset but only if the Security Council veto can be transferred to the Union and Chinese accept to convert the bonds they own at a reasonable discount of 50%.
Bad Joke of the Week
Oncologist: Studies practitioners who are often on call.
The stock market indices all over the world had a precipitous drop this week. Thursday’s close was the bottom it hit in August after nearly 20% drop within a few days. For a month since then it has gyrated within a five hundred point range touching that bottom again at Thursday’s close. If the index closes on Friday a hundred points below Thursday’s mark, expect it to drop another five hundred points before forming a platform. Where it will go from there is any one’s guess.
What should an investor do in this environment? Honestly I don’t know. I won’t blame any one for folding his tent and going home. It depends on your ability to stand after taking some blows. That said, my hunch is that the things will not be as bad as in 2008. I think that most companies, even the financial institutions, are in a better place now than they were then. Companies in other business sectors are much better placed with much less debt and generally strong cash positions. Balance sheets are much stronger and even if some Euro national debts are downgraded and some banks fail, there is no danger of debt market seizing again.
I am staying put in the market expecting a revival in the prices of good companies sooner or later and continued payment of dividends in almost all of them. To enhance the prospects of capital gains my portfolio has a sprinkling of small companies which are takeover candidates. I have no assurance that the portfolio will keep its value in the short term nor the certainty that it won’t recover to some extent next week. The problem investors have is the unpredictability of the markets and that when they go up you have to be in the game to enjoy it. I do have complete faith that in the long term the stay put investors will be smiling. There is just too much money floating around to stay on the sidelines for long.
I am sorry I am not offering any firm advice. One final word: if you are losing sleep over it, sit down with your financial advisor and decide on a course of action that will get rid of the creeping insomnia.
Government Budgets:
Why does every Conservative leader emphasize cutting deficits by reducing essential services and public service employment? This is not the only way to balance the budgets. It can be done just as well by increasing taxes, marginally in many instances. This may reduce sale of some luxury items but will keep more people employed and will reduce the possibility of recession. Let us face it. poorer schools, less Medicare, crumbling transport infrastructure and lax regulation and law enforcement hurts business more than the general population.
As for debts, if the governments of countries most in debt taxed appropriately and the citizens paid the taxes they owed, the problem wouldn’t be there. For debt and budget problems in the U.S. and Europe blame the cowardice of the leaders of last two decades, not eliminate the jobs of people who have been working hard in difficult circumstances.
Response to the speech of the President of Iran at the U.N.:
United States has never done anything wrong and never will. Americans have always set an example and most people are happy to follow them. Anyone who says anything different should have his mouth sealed for good and be made to attend TEA party rallies for the rest of his life.
You won’t believe it!
Netanyahu informed a private meeting of his supporters in Washington that he turned down Harper’s request to join the Union of Israel because there is nothing in it for him and that he will present Obama’s application to the Knesset but only if the Security Council veto can be transferred to the Union and Chinese accept to convert the bonds they own at a reasonable discount of 50%.
Bad Joke of the Week
Oncologist: Studies practitioners who are often on call.
Friday, September 16, 2011
Terrorist Attacks: We Need Appropriate Security Measures and No More
After ten years of what has come to be known simply as 9/11 it may be instructive to look at its impact on the society and the economy. Americans and the world were shocked by the magnitude of the disaster; death of nearly three thousand people when two planes owned by the American airlines and carrying a large load of passengers were hijacked and crashed into two of the tallest buildings in the world which were reduced to rubble. The official and public reaction to the tragedy was to treat the hijacking planned and executed by a jihadist group as war and elevate the status of the unfortunate victims to heroes, notwithstanding that a hero is someone who puts up a brave fight against the invading forces while those in the towers and planes had no opportunity to do anything but surrender to their fate. They were unwitting victims deserving of our sympathies but not the admiration that the heroes are accorded. The true heroes in the tragedy were the individuals who died in the rescue effort in horrible circumstances or contacted disease and died prematurely later. The respect to their sacrifice is diminished if they are considered on the same level as those who died trying to escape the collapsing towers or tied helplessly to their seats in the crashing planes.
The U.S. administration decided on a response with two goals: make absolutely certain that the events will not be repeated on American soil and bring the perpetrators, El Qaeda and their leader Bin Laden, to heel. To achieve the first, an ever expanding all encompassing department of ‘Homeland Security’ was set up which put in operation measures to safeguard all public buildings, national and international flights and scrutinize all visitors to the country. It also set up elaborate systems to listen to and records all communications whether on phones or the internet with total disregard to the constitutional rights of citizens. Whatever this department budgeted for personnel and equipment was approved. It now employs 230,000 people and its annual budget exceeds 50 billion dollars. Although opinions differ on whether such expenditures are needed to keep El Qaeda and its cohorts out of the country, Americans do feel a sense of relief that there were no attacks on American soil after that day in 2001; a few rather crude attempts were made but they were easily quashed. Many give credit for this good fortune to the extensive security system and perhaps it is deserved. On the other hand excessive security checks at every turn have made the travel an unpleasant experience instead of a thrill it used to be. More glaring is the human cost of the process. Assuming that every traveler spends on average an extra fifteen minutes on security checks at various points at the airport, estimated 800 million passengers in a year in the U.S. spend in total the equivalent of more than 23,000 years, 300 lifetimes. Over ten years the number of wasted lives adds up to more than those lost on the towers and this count does not include land and sea transport. Add to this the number of security agents at the airports, shopping malls, offices and those guarding the leaders and the inescapable conclusion is that the number of lives being consumed in the U.S. alone by our fear of the repeat of 9/11 is staggering. It is not hard to imagine what it would do to the economy and general social welfare if even a fraction of this resource could be spent in productive and life enhancing work instead of mothers travelling with babies worrying about how to pack the milk bottles before leaving for the journey or the agents looking for tubes of toothpaste in the bags of seventy year old ladies.
Bush administration started two wars to eliminate the evil forces behind what he called the ‘war of terror’. No constraints were placed on the budget of the Defense Department to fight the wars on another continent. Iraq war cost 4,474 American lives and the Iraqis are worse economically and more divided than they were under the hated dictator who, by the way, was no friend of El Qaeda. The war in Afghanistan is still being fought after ten years. The Allies’ casualties there were low for the first few years but they have dramatically increased over last three years and now total 1,766 Americans and 955 allies. The civilian casualties in the two countries are in hundreds of thousands but they don’t count in our calculation. Total cost of the two wars to the US treasury so far is estimated at 2.5 trillion dollars and another 1.5 trillion is yet to come. Including Homeland security budgets during its nine years of existence, total costs to fight the ‘war on terror’ so far exceeds 3.0 trillion dollars, $10,000 for each American and twice as many American dead as the number of 9/11 victims. It has been estimated by some US academics that if this money were spent in supporting the infrastructure, education and industry, it would have created one million jobs.
There can be little doubt that three trillion dollars spent on the security abroad (wars) and at home (Homeland Security) have contributed significantly to the precipitous decline in the economies of the U.S. and the European Union, its industrial and resource-poor trading partner. Since the taxes could not be increased for ideological reasons, budget deficit and the cumulative debt ballooned even though budget allocation to essential services was cut to the bone. The same pattern was repeated all over Europe. The human, industrial and technical resources which would have been more gainfully employed in improving efficiency to compete with the consumer goods exported by China and commercial services offered by India were diverted to enhance ‘security’. The obsession with ‘war on terror’ offered a golden opportunity to Asian countries and they took full advantage of it to expand their markets in America and Europe. There was a huge transfer of wealth from developed West to developing East and China, India, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia had unprecedented economic growth. We saw a bizarre spectacle of Chinese and Indian companies buying the mainstays of Western industry to firm up their foothold and their governments offering to buy distressed Euro bonds of near bankrupt nations to help them out.
There is universal agreement on the need of measured security steps against a real threat. But the methods adopted to counter the threat must strike a balance between the expected damage and the cost of protection in actual dollars, human resources and the demands made on the public. A concerted effort to achieve such balance could in fact enhance our security rather than reducing it and if it had been struck instead of the knee jerk response of the Bush administration, the US economy would not be hovering near collapse and there would be a million fewer Americans looking for work. And Bin Laden would not be laughing from his perch in Heaven surrounded by three thousand virgins.
CBC at its most memorable
CBC is celebrating 75 years of service to Canada. I have been an admirer of the radio program CBC2 for most of my 37 years in Canada. As a tribute to all the people who have made the organization great, here is one of my cherished memories.
It must have been about twenty years ago. I was driving to visit a client downtown. As usual the radio was tuned to CBC2 of good old days when it was devoted to classical music. It happened to be playing one of my favourite pieces, Wagner’s Siegfried Idyll. It was an outstanding recording, better than any I could remember. I scratched my head wondering which great orchestra it was; Concertgebouw of Amsterdam, Vienna Philharmonic or Berlin under von Karajan, Abbado or some other great conductor. I sat in the car mesmerized till the piece came to an end. To my utter surprise, the recording was a performance by CBC Vancouver orchestra under Mario Bernardi who was also the conductor of Calgary Philharmonic in those days. I was disappointed to learnt that the recording was not for sale to the public.
Unfortunately, that great orchestra is now no more and maestro Bernardi is not conducting any longer. But the orchestra and the great Canadian conductor will live in my memory through that performance till the senility sets in.
Decline in Gold Price
It tickled me to observe how media have disregarded the drop of more than a hundred dollars in the price of gold this week. In previous two weeks, it was the news of the hour, latest quoted price being broadcast on the radio, on the internet and commentary on business pages. Now that the decline, sorry correction, has set in there is a deafening silence.
Setting of new records is always news and if the investors get carried away by the hype and buy the overpriced metal it is their decision. Some of them are now losing their shirts but it is not an interesting story and not worth a passing mention. Maybe just as well. If media made a fuss about the drop, the decline could cause a stampede of sellers and the banking system, thanks to huge losses the investment arms of banks would suffer, could seize again as it did in 2008. Let us thank Media Moghuls for small mercies.
After ten years of what has come to be known simply as 9/11 it may be instructive to look at its impact on the society and the economy. Americans and the world were shocked by the magnitude of the disaster; death of nearly three thousand people when two planes owned by the American airlines and carrying a large load of passengers were hijacked and crashed into two of the tallest buildings in the world which were reduced to rubble. The official and public reaction to the tragedy was to treat the hijacking planned and executed by a jihadist group as war and elevate the status of the unfortunate victims to heroes, notwithstanding that a hero is someone who puts up a brave fight against the invading forces while those in the towers and planes had no opportunity to do anything but surrender to their fate. They were unwitting victims deserving of our sympathies but not the admiration that the heroes are accorded. The true heroes in the tragedy were the individuals who died in the rescue effort in horrible circumstances or contacted disease and died prematurely later. The respect to their sacrifice is diminished if they are considered on the same level as those who died trying to escape the collapsing towers or tied helplessly to their seats in the crashing planes.
The U.S. administration decided on a response with two goals: make absolutely certain that the events will not be repeated on American soil and bring the perpetrators, El Qaeda and their leader Bin Laden, to heel. To achieve the first, an ever expanding all encompassing department of ‘Homeland Security’ was set up which put in operation measures to safeguard all public buildings, national and international flights and scrutinize all visitors to the country. It also set up elaborate systems to listen to and records all communications whether on phones or the internet with total disregard to the constitutional rights of citizens. Whatever this department budgeted for personnel and equipment was approved. It now employs 230,000 people and its annual budget exceeds 50 billion dollars. Although opinions differ on whether such expenditures are needed to keep El Qaeda and its cohorts out of the country, Americans do feel a sense of relief that there were no attacks on American soil after that day in 2001; a few rather crude attempts were made but they were easily quashed. Many give credit for this good fortune to the extensive security system and perhaps it is deserved. On the other hand excessive security checks at every turn have made the travel an unpleasant experience instead of a thrill it used to be. More glaring is the human cost of the process. Assuming that every traveler spends on average an extra fifteen minutes on security checks at various points at the airport, estimated 800 million passengers in a year in the U.S. spend in total the equivalent of more than 23,000 years, 300 lifetimes. Over ten years the number of wasted lives adds up to more than those lost on the towers and this count does not include land and sea transport. Add to this the number of security agents at the airports, shopping malls, offices and those guarding the leaders and the inescapable conclusion is that the number of lives being consumed in the U.S. alone by our fear of the repeat of 9/11 is staggering. It is not hard to imagine what it would do to the economy and general social welfare if even a fraction of this resource could be spent in productive and life enhancing work instead of mothers travelling with babies worrying about how to pack the milk bottles before leaving for the journey or the agents looking for tubes of toothpaste in the bags of seventy year old ladies.
Bush administration started two wars to eliminate the evil forces behind what he called the ‘war of terror’. No constraints were placed on the budget of the Defense Department to fight the wars on another continent. Iraq war cost 4,474 American lives and the Iraqis are worse economically and more divided than they were under the hated dictator who, by the way, was no friend of El Qaeda. The war in Afghanistan is still being fought after ten years. The Allies’ casualties there were low for the first few years but they have dramatically increased over last three years and now total 1,766 Americans and 955 allies. The civilian casualties in the two countries are in hundreds of thousands but they don’t count in our calculation. Total cost of the two wars to the US treasury so far is estimated at 2.5 trillion dollars and another 1.5 trillion is yet to come. Including Homeland security budgets during its nine years of existence, total costs to fight the ‘war on terror’ so far exceeds 3.0 trillion dollars, $10,000 for each American and twice as many American dead as the number of 9/11 victims. It has been estimated by some US academics that if this money were spent in supporting the infrastructure, education and industry, it would have created one million jobs.
There can be little doubt that three trillion dollars spent on the security abroad (wars) and at home (Homeland Security) have contributed significantly to the precipitous decline in the economies of the U.S. and the European Union, its industrial and resource-poor trading partner. Since the taxes could not be increased for ideological reasons, budget deficit and the cumulative debt ballooned even though budget allocation to essential services was cut to the bone. The same pattern was repeated all over Europe. The human, industrial and technical resources which would have been more gainfully employed in improving efficiency to compete with the consumer goods exported by China and commercial services offered by India were diverted to enhance ‘security’. The obsession with ‘war on terror’ offered a golden opportunity to Asian countries and they took full advantage of it to expand their markets in America and Europe. There was a huge transfer of wealth from developed West to developing East and China, India, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia had unprecedented economic growth. We saw a bizarre spectacle of Chinese and Indian companies buying the mainstays of Western industry to firm up their foothold and their governments offering to buy distressed Euro bonds of near bankrupt nations to help them out.
There is universal agreement on the need of measured security steps against a real threat. But the methods adopted to counter the threat must strike a balance between the expected damage and the cost of protection in actual dollars, human resources and the demands made on the public. A concerted effort to achieve such balance could in fact enhance our security rather than reducing it and if it had been struck instead of the knee jerk response of the Bush administration, the US economy would not be hovering near collapse and there would be a million fewer Americans looking for work. And Bin Laden would not be laughing from his perch in Heaven surrounded by three thousand virgins.
CBC at its most memorable
CBC is celebrating 75 years of service to Canada. I have been an admirer of the radio program CBC2 for most of my 37 years in Canada. As a tribute to all the people who have made the organization great, here is one of my cherished memories.
It must have been about twenty years ago. I was driving to visit a client downtown. As usual the radio was tuned to CBC2 of good old days when it was devoted to classical music. It happened to be playing one of my favourite pieces, Wagner’s Siegfried Idyll. It was an outstanding recording, better than any I could remember. I scratched my head wondering which great orchestra it was; Concertgebouw of Amsterdam, Vienna Philharmonic or Berlin under von Karajan, Abbado or some other great conductor. I sat in the car mesmerized till the piece came to an end. To my utter surprise, the recording was a performance by CBC Vancouver orchestra under Mario Bernardi who was also the conductor of Calgary Philharmonic in those days. I was disappointed to learnt that the recording was not for sale to the public.
Unfortunately, that great orchestra is now no more and maestro Bernardi is not conducting any longer. But the orchestra and the great Canadian conductor will live in my memory through that performance till the senility sets in.
Decline in Gold Price
It tickled me to observe how media have disregarded the drop of more than a hundred dollars in the price of gold this week. In previous two weeks, it was the news of the hour, latest quoted price being broadcast on the radio, on the internet and commentary on business pages. Now that the decline, sorry correction, has set in there is a deafening silence.
Setting of new records is always news and if the investors get carried away by the hype and buy the overpriced metal it is their decision. Some of them are now losing their shirts but it is not an interesting story and not worth a passing mention. Maybe just as well. If media made a fuss about the drop, the decline could cause a stampede of sellers and the banking system, thanks to huge losses the investment arms of banks would suffer, could seize again as it did in 2008. Let us thank Media Moghuls for small mercies.
Friday, September 9, 2011
Odyssey of a Self-Centred Man
David woke up at eight, the usual time for a Saturday. Sylvia was off on a camping trip with her friends and he was by himself this weekend. He brewed the blend of Kona coffee that he particularly likes and had a leisurely breakfast of French toast with loads of butter and drenched in maple syrup from the trees of a business associate in Rimouski. He read the weekend edition of the National Post and attended to a couple of chores. It was ten, a good time for a long walk in the park before it got hot – the forecast was for a sunny day and a high of 28. He drove to the parking lot after dropping by his bank on the way.
Glenhill is one the largest open spaces in a city in North America. It has an amazing variety of flora and fauna and paths for walking, jogging and cycling with well placed benches with wonderful views of the skyline of the downtown for those in need of rest. In a city of more than a million people one would expect a large number of people enjoying the outdoors on an unusually fine day but there was hardly any one there. It seems that the shopping mall is the place to be in on a beautiful day, just as it is in foul weather. There are always sales one has to take advantage of whether or not he/she needs, or is ever likely to need, the items on offer at 35% less than their inflated price. While ‘saving’ on these things, you might just as well buy some gift for Cousin Millie in Moose Jaw and Uncle Tom in Red Deer, there birthdays are on the horizon. Of course you have to stop by in the food court and grab a hamburger with a mango milkshake. Once in the mall, one might as well check on next season’s fashions which are beginning to arrive in the shops from the fashion houses. It won’t be a bad idea to pick up the special chocolate the spouse loves; it will divert attention from the shopping bags.
In any event, there were only a few individuals in the park. Single walkers or joggers were absorbed in their music on the headphone; some were talking animatedly on the cell and there were also rare examples of young people using both. Most interesting were couples. The sample was too small for a statistical study but it was interesting all the same. Most common were the pairs walking a few steps apart, both on their phones. Not uncommon were the cases of one with the instrument glued to the ear and mouth open and the other walking ahead or behind. The remaining few odd couples were agitatedly arguing on the topics of vital importance to them. It must have been an unusual day; Ravi did not see any couple amicably chatting together.
On his way home, it struck David that the gloomy observations are nothing new to him. On their recent car trip to visit the parents in Winnipeg, he couldn’t think of one pleasant conversation – Sylvia remembered the trip with great pleasure while he only thought of the times when Sylvia had the temper tantrums and he felt like a mosquito watching a slap about to land on him. All he remembered of the long drives were the arguments; about driving too slow, two fast, passing dangerously, being stuck behind a smoking truck, God forbid missing a rest stop or even worse a turn. That is not all. Sylvia is excited about two long cruises they are planning in next six months. David is scared to death. Snappy responses wash over him with little perturbation but how many blow ups will there be, how many times will he be sorry that the handful of Tylenol 3 he took a while ago did not do what he expected them to do, how many times will he wonder how to have the courage of making a decision that will release him, and Sylvia too, from their tense lives together. After thirty three years together it may seem a bit late to change the course drastically. Yet, is it worth ending up in the mad house even if they have an excellent cafeteria there? On a larger scale, why do the spouses carry on relentlessly making each other miserable on every opportunity rather than look for the ways to live a less conflicted life?
When he got home, David had a long cold drink. For lunch he had a bowl of heartwarming mushroom soup prepared by Sylvia especially to his taste and a sandwich made with cream cheese and tomato she had brought from the local produce market. After putting the dishes away he picked up Isolde’s Dream, a collection of stories recommended to him, and made himself comfortable in the hammock under the shade of a maple tree. A sense of guilt now overpowered him - morning’s negative thoughts needed examination. Were the couples as unhappy as they looked or he was projecting his own unhappiness on them? If this is indeed the case what is the source of his unhappiness?
David fell asleep with the question buzzing in his head and the book protecting his face from mosquito bites. When a magpie woke him up he realized that his subconscious had worked out the answer. Sylvia is an extrovert with a large social circle, her friends love her and want to be with her. He is just the opposite, an introverted, solitary person, buried in his books and the music. Whatever social life he has is determined by Sylvia, he has none of his own. Whether the introversion is due to a mild depression or it is due to the lack of Dopamine in his brain is really not the issue. What matters is that the misery on this particular morning was prompted by his inexplicable wish for company on the walk, not to share any news or discuss any particular idea but merely not to be alone. This was one of those few times when an introvert wants to reach out, or wants someone to reach out to him/her and if there is no one there it sinks the spirit. It had dawned on him over breakfast that there was no one he knows well enough to ask to join him for the walk. This would rarely be an issue because Sylvia is usually available. But this morning it became one and created the unhappiness, even sparked the envy towards the wife who has always been kind to him.
Only solution, David said to himself, is to reach out and create a circle of friends. However, friendship means he being available to them, not only they being available to him. Here is the rub. He is getting on in life, there are not many good years left and there are a great many things he wishes to accomplish. Yet, he must make room for friends in whatever time is left to him after attending to family. He must strike a balance in his life between work and social commitments if he wants to keep his sanity. Not much different than the problem of his youth. More things change -------
David woke up at eight, the usual time for a Saturday. Sylvia was off on a camping trip with her friends and he was by himself this weekend. He brewed the blend of Kona coffee that he particularly likes and had a leisurely breakfast of French toast with loads of butter and drenched in maple syrup from the trees of a business associate in Rimouski. He read the weekend edition of the National Post and attended to a couple of chores. It was ten, a good time for a long walk in the park before it got hot – the forecast was for a sunny day and a high of 28. He drove to the parking lot after dropping by his bank on the way.
Glenhill is one the largest open spaces in a city in North America. It has an amazing variety of flora and fauna and paths for walking, jogging and cycling with well placed benches with wonderful views of the skyline of the downtown for those in need of rest. In a city of more than a million people one would expect a large number of people enjoying the outdoors on an unusually fine day but there was hardly any one there. It seems that the shopping mall is the place to be in on a beautiful day, just as it is in foul weather. There are always sales one has to take advantage of whether or not he/she needs, or is ever likely to need, the items on offer at 35% less than their inflated price. While ‘saving’ on these things, you might just as well buy some gift for Cousin Millie in Moose Jaw and Uncle Tom in Red Deer, there birthdays are on the horizon. Of course you have to stop by in the food court and grab a hamburger with a mango milkshake. Once in the mall, one might as well check on next season’s fashions which are beginning to arrive in the shops from the fashion houses. It won’t be a bad idea to pick up the special chocolate the spouse loves; it will divert attention from the shopping bags.
In any event, there were only a few individuals in the park. Single walkers or joggers were absorbed in their music on the headphone; some were talking animatedly on the cell and there were also rare examples of young people using both. Most interesting were couples. The sample was too small for a statistical study but it was interesting all the same. Most common were the pairs walking a few steps apart, both on their phones. Not uncommon were the cases of one with the instrument glued to the ear and mouth open and the other walking ahead or behind. The remaining few odd couples were agitatedly arguing on the topics of vital importance to them. It must have been an unusual day; Ravi did not see any couple amicably chatting together.
On his way home, it struck David that the gloomy observations are nothing new to him. On their recent car trip to visit the parents in Winnipeg, he couldn’t think of one pleasant conversation – Sylvia remembered the trip with great pleasure while he only thought of the times when Sylvia had the temper tantrums and he felt like a mosquito watching a slap about to land on him. All he remembered of the long drives were the arguments; about driving too slow, two fast, passing dangerously, being stuck behind a smoking truck, God forbid missing a rest stop or even worse a turn. That is not all. Sylvia is excited about two long cruises they are planning in next six months. David is scared to death. Snappy responses wash over him with little perturbation but how many blow ups will there be, how many times will he be sorry that the handful of Tylenol 3 he took a while ago did not do what he expected them to do, how many times will he wonder how to have the courage of making a decision that will release him, and Sylvia too, from their tense lives together. After thirty three years together it may seem a bit late to change the course drastically. Yet, is it worth ending up in the mad house even if they have an excellent cafeteria there? On a larger scale, why do the spouses carry on relentlessly making each other miserable on every opportunity rather than look for the ways to live a less conflicted life?
When he got home, David had a long cold drink. For lunch he had a bowl of heartwarming mushroom soup prepared by Sylvia especially to his taste and a sandwich made with cream cheese and tomato she had brought from the local produce market. After putting the dishes away he picked up Isolde’s Dream, a collection of stories recommended to him, and made himself comfortable in the hammock under the shade of a maple tree. A sense of guilt now overpowered him - morning’s negative thoughts needed examination. Were the couples as unhappy as they looked or he was projecting his own unhappiness on them? If this is indeed the case what is the source of his unhappiness?
David fell asleep with the question buzzing in his head and the book protecting his face from mosquito bites. When a magpie woke him up he realized that his subconscious had worked out the answer. Sylvia is an extrovert with a large social circle, her friends love her and want to be with her. He is just the opposite, an introverted, solitary person, buried in his books and the music. Whatever social life he has is determined by Sylvia, he has none of his own. Whether the introversion is due to a mild depression or it is due to the lack of Dopamine in his brain is really not the issue. What matters is that the misery on this particular morning was prompted by his inexplicable wish for company on the walk, not to share any news or discuss any particular idea but merely not to be alone. This was one of those few times when an introvert wants to reach out, or wants someone to reach out to him/her and if there is no one there it sinks the spirit. It had dawned on him over breakfast that there was no one he knows well enough to ask to join him for the walk. This would rarely be an issue because Sylvia is usually available. But this morning it became one and created the unhappiness, even sparked the envy towards the wife who has always been kind to him.
Only solution, David said to himself, is to reach out and create a circle of friends. However, friendship means he being available to them, not only they being available to him. Here is the rub. He is getting on in life, there are not many good years left and there are a great many things he wishes to accomplish. Yet, he must make room for friends in whatever time is left to him after attending to family. He must strike a balance in his life between work and social commitments if he wants to keep his sanity. Not much different than the problem of his youth. More things change -------
Friday, September 2, 2011
Charlie, the New Author
Charlie had an unusual idea of what was fun. As a child he invented tricks which embarrassed the old relatives or teachers who upset him without them suspecting Charlie as the source of their discomfiture. For instance, his uncle Gordon was hauled by the police and kept in jail overnight because they had received an anonymous phone tip that someone was dealing drugs from his home. An old and much respected teacher was reprimanded because the Principal received a compromising note in a student scribble. So it came as no surprise to me that he would pull off another such trick in his old age. Unfortunately, it backfired.
Charlie had a comfortable life although he only held a junior position in the civil service. His wife was a successful criminal defence lawyer. They lived in a prosperous part of town and he drove a recent model Volvo. After retiring as soon as he could, Charlie became a prolific writer of stories and essays which he sent by email to all his friends. Though most of them hardly ever opened any of the files, they replied praising his work as great and deserving to be published in leading literary magazines. Thus encouraged, he sent them to every magazine in North America whether he had ever seen it or not. The negative response from them did not discourage him at all. He collected the stories in a book and submitted this to publishers whose publications he had come across. Next, he sent it to the publishers who accepted submissions from unknown authors. But, unlike his friends these publishers were blind to the charm and humour in his writing. After keeping the manuscript in the ‘Priority Z’ stack for a year they sent a curt note wishing him success with some other ‘house’. His friends suggested self-publishing but he resented the idea of paying several thousand dollars of his wife’s money to a ‘vanity’ publisher. At last a solution to his problem emerged when he was surfing the net, as he did most of the day when he was not writing or reading. He saw an ad which claimed that New World Publishers did not charge for publishing and even paid the writer for giving them the privilege of putting their great work in front of the public. What is more, they did not want double-spaced printed sheets in strange format with self-addressed stamped envelops which cost a bundle to mail. They insisted on email delivery. Here was his chance to get the book published with all the expense borne by a stranger in a foreign country. “The book will sell millions and I will get my revenge on all those who rejected my works in the past. They will be sorry to have missed the obvious best-seller,” he thought rubbing his hands in glee. Before many people could have batted an eyelid the manuscript was on its way to Susannahtown with inflated claims of his contacts in the local media and the number of friends who would buy the book. The acceptance was duly received in two days and after he had reviewed the basic conditions in the acceptance message and agreed to them within specified 24 minutes, a contract was in his mail box the next day. He had a day and a half to review 50 pages of bold print in font 14 and another 50 pages in font 6. He missed his meals and slept only an hour to make sure there was nothing unexpected in the contract which would come to haunt him later. It was what he had expected more or less. He was responsible for the validity of the statements and legally responsible for any claims made against the publisher resulting from the book. He would be paid a royalty advance of one cent and 2% of the publisher’s income from the book for first 10,000 sales, 4% for next 100,000 and 5% thereafter but only if the royalties were one thousand dollars or more in any calendar quarter which of course they would be, Charlie thought. To top it all, he retained the copyrights and all proceeds of the sales of film rights – very likely in his opinion – would accrue to him.
He signed the contract and emailed it. Next day he was advised to send the final copy of the manuscript. No changes were allowed once it was set in a book form. He sent the file he had sent previously without even opening it, leave alone checking for typos or other errors. A week later he was told that in view of the backlog it would take a year or more for his book to be published. But he could go to the top of the waiting pile if he agreed to pay $249. Charlie is not known for his patience and the amount was charged to his credit card before he had discussed the issue with his financier – wife Monica.
Two days later he received the design of the book, with the cover showing an older man in a red jacket and rather scantily dressed young well endowed woman in a tight embrace, very appropriate for the spring autumn love theme of most stories in the collection. On top was his name in big letters, title ‘Stories of Love’ emblazoned across the picture and the logo of the New World Publishers on the bottom right corner. Charlie was impressed to say the least. He printed it and showed it to Monica and all his friends who he hoped would buy the book. Along with the cover was the text. He was to check it for any errors by the book designer. His own errors would be corrected for a modest fee of $10 for each letter to be altered. “Of course there are no errors in my manuscript. But who knows what formatting errors may have crept in?” thought Charlie as he opened the file. The first page was an absolute delight to Charlie; it said in bold writing “The publisher has not edited the manuscript due to her regard for the author.” However this did not last. To his utter dismay, he found one hundred and seventy three typos and only five possible formatting problems. “I can not let a book with errors go into the world. These must be corrected,” said soon to be famous author to himself and sent the list of corrections. Promptly came back the request for his credit card details. The charges from the no-cost publisher were now in the two thousand dollars range.
Three days later the request to send email addresses of likely fans and the local media outlets arrived. He collected the addresses of his friends, the libraries, television stations and radio programs. Later in the day a list of several hundred addresses was in the inbox of the publicity department. Next came the invitation to order advance copies at reduced price. Charlie had to take advantage of this offer and asked for one hundred copies even though the shipping cost was almost as much as the cost of the book and was charged per copy irrespective of the number of copies ordered. His total expenses, he considered it an investment, on the venture had now reached five thousand dollars.
But this was not all. Within next seven days he received invitations to have the book mentioned on SBC TV stations, put on the shelves of 400 Best Sell Book Store chain, be represented by the most successful literary agent in Dollywood, each for a modest fee of $499, tax included. Having come this far, Charlie was not the one to fold his hand. $1,497 was added to his debt to the credit card company without a second’s thought. “If you want to sell a million copies and have a film made from your story you need publicity and a good agent” he told Monica.
“Why should you be paying for the publicity, they get almost all the money from the sales, not to mention profit on exorbitant shipping fees?” Monica asked.
“They are a business and publishers are having a hard time these days. They have to find ways to break even and sharing with the authors is one way to reduce their costs”, Charlie pleaded for the publisher.
“They should pay a more reasonable rate of royalty then. How much have you spent already anyway?” Monica wanted to know.
“Not all that much. It will be nothing compared to what is coming,” Charlie was non-committal.
“Do answer my question. I want to know how much of a hole we are in”, Monica was adamant.
“Hum, let me see, something in the range of six thousand,” Charlie was still not specific.
“That is the royalty on twelve thousand books. Most books of stories by unknown authors sell a few hundreds. What makes you think you will sell tens of thousands?” Monica’s anger was now on the surface.
“I have been dreaming of the sale in millions. I suppose we will have to wait and see,” Charlie was shamefaced.
“You also dream of winning the jackpot every month. That is a few dollars and relatively harmless. Where did you get all this money from any way?” Monica wasn’t letting go.
“It is charged to my card. I was hoping you would advance me the money against the royalty check when the payment becomes due” Charlie said with humble tone he adopted when asking Monica for money.
“I shared dreams with you for first two years of our life together but not since then. You dream in bright colours. Not me. My dreams are in black and white, no in shades of grey. Dream as colourfully as you like and as often as you wish. But you are not allowed to spend a penny more on the book till the royalty check arrives,” Monica put her foot down with a click of high heel.
Regular messages continued to arrive from the New World suggesting ways of dramatically increasing the sales of the book for a ‘modest’ fee. But Charlie’s hands were now tied. He read them with a pang before pressing the delete button with a shaky finger. As for the royalty check it never arrived. Presumably sales did not reach the level needed to earn a thousand dollars in royalties. Monica must have really loved Charlie. She never mentioned the money she advanced against the royalty check.
Charlie had an unusual idea of what was fun. As a child he invented tricks which embarrassed the old relatives or teachers who upset him without them suspecting Charlie as the source of their discomfiture. For instance, his uncle Gordon was hauled by the police and kept in jail overnight because they had received an anonymous phone tip that someone was dealing drugs from his home. An old and much respected teacher was reprimanded because the Principal received a compromising note in a student scribble. So it came as no surprise to me that he would pull off another such trick in his old age. Unfortunately, it backfired.
Charlie had a comfortable life although he only held a junior position in the civil service. His wife was a successful criminal defence lawyer. They lived in a prosperous part of town and he drove a recent model Volvo. After retiring as soon as he could, Charlie became a prolific writer of stories and essays which he sent by email to all his friends. Though most of them hardly ever opened any of the files, they replied praising his work as great and deserving to be published in leading literary magazines. Thus encouraged, he sent them to every magazine in North America whether he had ever seen it or not. The negative response from them did not discourage him at all. He collected the stories in a book and submitted this to publishers whose publications he had come across. Next, he sent it to the publishers who accepted submissions from unknown authors. But, unlike his friends these publishers were blind to the charm and humour in his writing. After keeping the manuscript in the ‘Priority Z’ stack for a year they sent a curt note wishing him success with some other ‘house’. His friends suggested self-publishing but he resented the idea of paying several thousand dollars of his wife’s money to a ‘vanity’ publisher. At last a solution to his problem emerged when he was surfing the net, as he did most of the day when he was not writing or reading. He saw an ad which claimed that New World Publishers did not charge for publishing and even paid the writer for giving them the privilege of putting their great work in front of the public. What is more, they did not want double-spaced printed sheets in strange format with self-addressed stamped envelops which cost a bundle to mail. They insisted on email delivery. Here was his chance to get the book published with all the expense borne by a stranger in a foreign country. “The book will sell millions and I will get my revenge on all those who rejected my works in the past. They will be sorry to have missed the obvious best-seller,” he thought rubbing his hands in glee. Before many people could have batted an eyelid the manuscript was on its way to Susannahtown with inflated claims of his contacts in the local media and the number of friends who would buy the book. The acceptance was duly received in two days and after he had reviewed the basic conditions in the acceptance message and agreed to them within specified 24 minutes, a contract was in his mail box the next day. He had a day and a half to review 50 pages of bold print in font 14 and another 50 pages in font 6. He missed his meals and slept only an hour to make sure there was nothing unexpected in the contract which would come to haunt him later. It was what he had expected more or less. He was responsible for the validity of the statements and legally responsible for any claims made against the publisher resulting from the book. He would be paid a royalty advance of one cent and 2% of the publisher’s income from the book for first 10,000 sales, 4% for next 100,000 and 5% thereafter but only if the royalties were one thousand dollars or more in any calendar quarter which of course they would be, Charlie thought. To top it all, he retained the copyrights and all proceeds of the sales of film rights – very likely in his opinion – would accrue to him.
He signed the contract and emailed it. Next day he was advised to send the final copy of the manuscript. No changes were allowed once it was set in a book form. He sent the file he had sent previously without even opening it, leave alone checking for typos or other errors. A week later he was told that in view of the backlog it would take a year or more for his book to be published. But he could go to the top of the waiting pile if he agreed to pay $249. Charlie is not known for his patience and the amount was charged to his credit card before he had discussed the issue with his financier – wife Monica.
Two days later he received the design of the book, with the cover showing an older man in a red jacket and rather scantily dressed young well endowed woman in a tight embrace, very appropriate for the spring autumn love theme of most stories in the collection. On top was his name in big letters, title ‘Stories of Love’ emblazoned across the picture and the logo of the New World Publishers on the bottom right corner. Charlie was impressed to say the least. He printed it and showed it to Monica and all his friends who he hoped would buy the book. Along with the cover was the text. He was to check it for any errors by the book designer. His own errors would be corrected for a modest fee of $10 for each letter to be altered. “Of course there are no errors in my manuscript. But who knows what formatting errors may have crept in?” thought Charlie as he opened the file. The first page was an absolute delight to Charlie; it said in bold writing “The publisher has not edited the manuscript due to her regard for the author.” However this did not last. To his utter dismay, he found one hundred and seventy three typos and only five possible formatting problems. “I can not let a book with errors go into the world. These must be corrected,” said soon to be famous author to himself and sent the list of corrections. Promptly came back the request for his credit card details. The charges from the no-cost publisher were now in the two thousand dollars range.
Three days later the request to send email addresses of likely fans and the local media outlets arrived. He collected the addresses of his friends, the libraries, television stations and radio programs. Later in the day a list of several hundred addresses was in the inbox of the publicity department. Next came the invitation to order advance copies at reduced price. Charlie had to take advantage of this offer and asked for one hundred copies even though the shipping cost was almost as much as the cost of the book and was charged per copy irrespective of the number of copies ordered. His total expenses, he considered it an investment, on the venture had now reached five thousand dollars.
But this was not all. Within next seven days he received invitations to have the book mentioned on SBC TV stations, put on the shelves of 400 Best Sell Book Store chain, be represented by the most successful literary agent in Dollywood, each for a modest fee of $499, tax included. Having come this far, Charlie was not the one to fold his hand. $1,497 was added to his debt to the credit card company without a second’s thought. “If you want to sell a million copies and have a film made from your story you need publicity and a good agent” he told Monica.
“Why should you be paying for the publicity, they get almost all the money from the sales, not to mention profit on exorbitant shipping fees?” Monica asked.
“They are a business and publishers are having a hard time these days. They have to find ways to break even and sharing with the authors is one way to reduce their costs”, Charlie pleaded for the publisher.
“They should pay a more reasonable rate of royalty then. How much have you spent already anyway?” Monica wanted to know.
“Not all that much. It will be nothing compared to what is coming,” Charlie was non-committal.
“Do answer my question. I want to know how much of a hole we are in”, Monica was adamant.
“Hum, let me see, something in the range of six thousand,” Charlie was still not specific.
“That is the royalty on twelve thousand books. Most books of stories by unknown authors sell a few hundreds. What makes you think you will sell tens of thousands?” Monica’s anger was now on the surface.
“I have been dreaming of the sale in millions. I suppose we will have to wait and see,” Charlie was shamefaced.
“You also dream of winning the jackpot every month. That is a few dollars and relatively harmless. Where did you get all this money from any way?” Monica wasn’t letting go.
“It is charged to my card. I was hoping you would advance me the money against the royalty check when the payment becomes due” Charlie said with humble tone he adopted when asking Monica for money.
“I shared dreams with you for first two years of our life together but not since then. You dream in bright colours. Not me. My dreams are in black and white, no in shades of grey. Dream as colourfully as you like and as often as you wish. But you are not allowed to spend a penny more on the book till the royalty check arrives,” Monica put her foot down with a click of high heel.
Regular messages continued to arrive from the New World suggesting ways of dramatically increasing the sales of the book for a ‘modest’ fee. But Charlie’s hands were now tied. He read them with a pang before pressing the delete button with a shaky finger. As for the royalty check it never arrived. Presumably sales did not reach the level needed to earn a thousand dollars in royalties. Monica must have really loved Charlie. She never mentioned the money she advanced against the royalty check.
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