Do We Live in a Democratic Country?
Several news items last week should be bothering us:
1. A pollster suggested after analyzing his surveys on the May 2 election that the result would have been very different if the participation rate was similar in different age groups and that the Conservative party won the majority because they catered to the older group that votes at twice the rate of younger group who were more inclined to support the Liberals.
2. The Conservative party organizers gloated that they focused on winning the support of minority communities in seats where they were the crucial swing votes.
3. Disregarding the fact that 60% of actual voters did vote for the opposition parties the ruling party crows that the majority of Canadians support their policies while proposing legislative changes which most Canadians find unpleasant.
4. The sole ‘elected’ member of the senate said that it was the duty of senators to support their leader, thus implying that the chamber of sober thought was in reality to become a rubber stamp.
In addition there is the issue of candidates promoting reduced taxes, lower regulation of businesses, reduced social services, cuts in infrastructure spending and higher defense budget as policies in the interest of all voters with full knowledge that their agenda only helps their few wealthy supporters at the expense of vast population and the future generations. The success of such campaigns in recent elections in the U.S. is the main cause of economic plight of that country and the tendency of our government to copy this trend is a major worry for many Canadians.
These considerations raise the question: Has the democracy been subverted by the politicians to the point that it is no longer the representation of the will of the majority but the representation of the interests of wealthy individuals and professional politicians who have the means to manipulate the election process to their advantage. Making false promises during the elections is a practice as old as the elections but new strategies are now coming to the fore. Changing policy pronouncements during the campaign based on the polls, heavily concentrated often false negative projection of other leaders in media advertising, raising funds for election campaigns in return for government contracts and enactment of favourable policies, making it convenient for supporters and inconvenient for likely opponents to vote and other shenanigans have been taken to new heights by the well heeled right wing candidates in the U.S. in the past few elections and in Canada in the last two elections with great success. It is true that one does whatever he/she can to win and on the face of it there is nothing wrong with it. But it is fair to question the validity of claims that a government elected after such tricks in the elections is a true representation of the wishes of the population.
If we wish our system of government to be democracy in fact, not just in name, and the government of the day to truly reflect the wishes of citizens we need to take the election process away from professional politicians whose only aim is to gain power and stuff their ideologies down the throats of indifferent, if not unwilling, citizens. To begin with, we need a fixed date for elections. We need strict limit on spending by the parties and their supporters and a stringent code of ethics in advertising. Every voter must vote even if he decides to vote ‘no opinion’. And finally, we need proportional representation, not first past the post system we have now which allows a party with minority support to assume dictatorial powers. We may have some justification to topple foreign dictators only when we have a true democracy in our country. Till then our participation in the civil war in Libya and elsewhere to promote democaratic governments there is hypocrisy at its worst.
Friday, June 24, 2011
Friday, June 17, 2011
A New Activity in the Old Age.
In my first decade on Earth I learnt to walk and talk, though most of my friends wish I hadn’t learnt the later. In the second decade I learnt to speak English with an accent that still flummoxes most listeners and graduated from an elite technical institution. Next ten years saw me take two post graduate degrees, marry a fine English woman and move to Libya. My thirties were blessed with three wonderful daughters and our final emigration to Canada via the United States. Forties saw me prosper in business and save enough for a comfortable retirement. Pendulum swung in the fifties, my savings disappeared as the retirement loomed and the daughters moved to far away places. In the sexy sixties I retired, assumed the persona of a fiction writer and published a collection of stories. On the flip side the family survived severe illness of three family members. Now in seventies I have a serious issue. What can I do that I have not done before and is a contribution to the community. I have written a novel, a new book is with the printer and several stories are looking for publishers. But all this is old hat – a continuation of what I have been doing for a while. A month ago the answer to my prayer arrived from an unexpected source.
Keith, an old friend who had lost his very dear wife to ALS a few years ago sent us an invitation to join Betty’s Walk and Run on a Sunday morning to support ALS Society of Alberta. Evelyn, my wife, participates in several volunteer activities but I have avoided them as an unnecessary demand on my time and meager resources. However, on this occasion, perhaps due to my own fear of the onset of senility, I agreed to walk five kilometers in Glenmore Park which happens to be within a walking distance from our humble abode. But one can’t just go and walk in the park. You have to register for it on the internet. The website mentioned on the invitation led me to a Walk on the same day and I duly registered for it. No sooner had I clicked submit, I realized that the location did not seem right. Moreover, it was free while Betty’s Walk had a registration fee. A little investigation led to the correct website. I duly registered for both of us, paid $33 each for registration and printed out the receipts.
We woke up in good time for a leisurely breakfast of poached eggs, walked over to the park and collected our T-shirts before the start of the walk at 10AM. After a week of steady rain the sky had cleared. The sun was bright, temperature comfortable and breeze kept the mosquitoes at bay. We chatted with Keith and met his family. Then about one thousand people, young and old, men and women, some in prams, a few in wheel chairs, started walking alone, as couples or in groups of four to twenty along the bank of the reservoir on Elbow River. The reservoir was almost dry, its bed picturesque with curling rivulets and a tapestry of green vegetation and brown sand with the background of snow capped mountains in the distance and blue sky with clouds like silver discs of assorted sizes and shapes. There was a duck swimming with eight ducklings in tow and a miscellany of birds floating or flying over the reservoir. The scene was as beautiful as any pastoral view. After about forty minutes of an amble rather than a hike we reached the point of return, the west end of the reservoir. A table had been set up to offer water in paper cups to those who wanted it and almost every one did.
The return ramble was more relaxed. After a few minutes we sat down on a bench to watch the walkers go by, some in a rush to get to the church on time others strolling as if they had no care and all the time in the world. After our legs were ready to support us we started again only to stop a while later to watch a heron standing in water waiting for its lunch to come swimming. It had more patience than we did; after a few minutes we resumed our walk. We met Keith and his group at the Finish line an hour and a quarter after we had started. The first batch of runners were returning after eight kilometers run having set off half an hour later than we did for our five kilometre walk. We consoled ourselves with the thought that the runners were much younger than us although I do not remember ever running one kilometer leave alone eight.
We were home two hours after we had left. We had our customary cup of tea in the patio and slumped in easy chairs. I felt quite pleased with myself and decided that it was something I should do more often. One is never too old to learn and walking for good causes should be a nice addition to new activities in my eighth decade.
In my first decade on Earth I learnt to walk and talk, though most of my friends wish I hadn’t learnt the later. In the second decade I learnt to speak English with an accent that still flummoxes most listeners and graduated from an elite technical institution. Next ten years saw me take two post graduate degrees, marry a fine English woman and move to Libya. My thirties were blessed with three wonderful daughters and our final emigration to Canada via the United States. Forties saw me prosper in business and save enough for a comfortable retirement. Pendulum swung in the fifties, my savings disappeared as the retirement loomed and the daughters moved to far away places. In the sexy sixties I retired, assumed the persona of a fiction writer and published a collection of stories. On the flip side the family survived severe illness of three family members. Now in seventies I have a serious issue. What can I do that I have not done before and is a contribution to the community. I have written a novel, a new book is with the printer and several stories are looking for publishers. But all this is old hat – a continuation of what I have been doing for a while. A month ago the answer to my prayer arrived from an unexpected source.
Keith, an old friend who had lost his very dear wife to ALS a few years ago sent us an invitation to join Betty’s Walk and Run on a Sunday morning to support ALS Society of Alberta. Evelyn, my wife, participates in several volunteer activities but I have avoided them as an unnecessary demand on my time and meager resources. However, on this occasion, perhaps due to my own fear of the onset of senility, I agreed to walk five kilometers in Glenmore Park which happens to be within a walking distance from our humble abode. But one can’t just go and walk in the park. You have to register for it on the internet. The website mentioned on the invitation led me to a Walk on the same day and I duly registered for it. No sooner had I clicked submit, I realized that the location did not seem right. Moreover, it was free while Betty’s Walk had a registration fee. A little investigation led to the correct website. I duly registered for both of us, paid $33 each for registration and printed out the receipts.
We woke up in good time for a leisurely breakfast of poached eggs, walked over to the park and collected our T-shirts before the start of the walk at 10AM. After a week of steady rain the sky had cleared. The sun was bright, temperature comfortable and breeze kept the mosquitoes at bay. We chatted with Keith and met his family. Then about one thousand people, young and old, men and women, some in prams, a few in wheel chairs, started walking alone, as couples or in groups of four to twenty along the bank of the reservoir on Elbow River. The reservoir was almost dry, its bed picturesque with curling rivulets and a tapestry of green vegetation and brown sand with the background of snow capped mountains in the distance and blue sky with clouds like silver discs of assorted sizes and shapes. There was a duck swimming with eight ducklings in tow and a miscellany of birds floating or flying over the reservoir. The scene was as beautiful as any pastoral view. After about forty minutes of an amble rather than a hike we reached the point of return, the west end of the reservoir. A table had been set up to offer water in paper cups to those who wanted it and almost every one did.
The return ramble was more relaxed. After a few minutes we sat down on a bench to watch the walkers go by, some in a rush to get to the church on time others strolling as if they had no care and all the time in the world. After our legs were ready to support us we started again only to stop a while later to watch a heron standing in water waiting for its lunch to come swimming. It had more patience than we did; after a few minutes we resumed our walk. We met Keith and his group at the Finish line an hour and a quarter after we had started. The first batch of runners were returning after eight kilometers run having set off half an hour later than we did for our five kilometre walk. We consoled ourselves with the thought that the runners were much younger than us although I do not remember ever running one kilometer leave alone eight.
We were home two hours after we had left. We had our customary cup of tea in the patio and slumped in easy chairs. I felt quite pleased with myself and decided that it was something I should do more often. One is never too old to learn and walking for good causes should be a nice addition to new activities in my eighth decade.
Friday, June 10, 2011
The Way Out of the Debt Crisis in Europe
The news that European Central Bank (ECB), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the government of Greece are negotiating a new loan package of 110,000,000,000 Euros prompted me to find out what the population of the country is. It happens to be 11,000,000 give or take a few thousands. That puts the package value at 10,000 Euros per citizen, rich and poor, young and old. There are other government debts too which will come due sooner or later. Most families, in Greece just as every where else owe money on their homes, cars, other possessions and credit cards. Most businesses operate on borrowed money too. With every individual and business in debt you would wonder who do they owe to.
It so happens that they owe it to themselves. Some far sighted people have saved for their retirement, emergencies, cars or homes they intend to buy when they have enough money for the deposit and entrusted it to the insurance companies and banks. These institutions then loan this money to other individuals, businesses and governments and earn interest to cover their costs including the losses due to the defaulting few and of course bonuses for the executives. In theory, the system should work fine and it does when the economy is expanding and the value of assets is increasing. Most borrowers make timely payments of the interest and some of the principal and money circulates from those who have more to those who need more. However, when the times are tough, borrowers have lost their jobs or the wages fall behind inflation, a large number of borrowers; individuals, businesses or governments, fail to make the payments. This puts banks and insurance companies in a bind. Leave alone lending to the needy, these financial institutions can’t meet their own commitments to the depositors and lenders. Bank failures loom large, as they did in 2008 and a major crisis is on the horizon. The governments of prosperous countries raise the money from their citizens and save the system, as the United States and Western Europe did. Other less fortunate countries in Europe had to go to the IMF and ECB for aid and they have been struggling since then to come to terms with a dire situation. Their problems have been exacerbated by the net indebtedness to foreigners. The government of Japan carries a huge debt load without serious repercussions because most of it is in Yen and is owed to the citizens of Japan. It is interesting to note that the countries like China and India with strong culture for saving and reluctance to debt did not face this crisis because borrowers and defaulters were relatively few. The debt being local and in the country’s currency also helped.
It is in the interest of prosperous countries to save the economies of their less well off cousins – they need the markets for their products and services. The problems in Greece, Portugal, Ireland and elsewhere will eventually be resolved and the burden of debt on the governments and the individuals will be transferred from one lender in one form to the other in another form. But it will not be reduced to a sustainable level without unacceptable political risk. Therefore, the next crisis will be with us soon unless we, at all levels, develop a culture of conservatively evaluating our means before handing out the credit cards or going to the bank for a line of credit or a mortgage. This means restraining the consumer society and to engender a desire to make do with what we can afford rather than acquire bigger and flashier gizmos to keep up with our group. This has to be done by the businesses as well as the governments who have to limit their services and constrain the borrowings to the lending capacity of their national institutions. The countries currently in trouble joined the European Common Market (ECM) and accepted Euro as the common currency in the false hope that the adoption of the currency of Germany and France would overcome the handicaps of easy going culture and weaker industrial and resource base. It will help if southern European countries now take the drastic step and regain the flexibility in their economic policies by reverting to the independent national currencies which they surrendered either within or outside ECM. There is great reluctance among the governments to do so at this juncture. However, the protests on the streets of Athens, Madrid and Lisbon are gathering momentum and it is only a matter of time before these governments change their stance.
In Memoriam
Ravi Sharma was born with a silver pen in his fingers in 2001 when a letter appeared under his name in Canada’s national newspaper. For next six years more than one hundred of his submissions graced the pages of leading publications of the country. He met his premature, though anticipated, death in 2007 when editors started to question the authenticity of his work and cast doubt on his existence. Ravi’s ashes were recycled along with the manuscripts of his unpublished works.
Much to the chagrin of the editors, his name lives through the works they published.
The news that European Central Bank (ECB), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the government of Greece are negotiating a new loan package of 110,000,000,000 Euros prompted me to find out what the population of the country is. It happens to be 11,000,000 give or take a few thousands. That puts the package value at 10,000 Euros per citizen, rich and poor, young and old. There are other government debts too which will come due sooner or later. Most families, in Greece just as every where else owe money on their homes, cars, other possessions and credit cards. Most businesses operate on borrowed money too. With every individual and business in debt you would wonder who do they owe to.
It so happens that they owe it to themselves. Some far sighted people have saved for their retirement, emergencies, cars or homes they intend to buy when they have enough money for the deposit and entrusted it to the insurance companies and banks. These institutions then loan this money to other individuals, businesses and governments and earn interest to cover their costs including the losses due to the defaulting few and of course bonuses for the executives. In theory, the system should work fine and it does when the economy is expanding and the value of assets is increasing. Most borrowers make timely payments of the interest and some of the principal and money circulates from those who have more to those who need more. However, when the times are tough, borrowers have lost their jobs or the wages fall behind inflation, a large number of borrowers; individuals, businesses or governments, fail to make the payments. This puts banks and insurance companies in a bind. Leave alone lending to the needy, these financial institutions can’t meet their own commitments to the depositors and lenders. Bank failures loom large, as they did in 2008 and a major crisis is on the horizon. The governments of prosperous countries raise the money from their citizens and save the system, as the United States and Western Europe did. Other less fortunate countries in Europe had to go to the IMF and ECB for aid and they have been struggling since then to come to terms with a dire situation. Their problems have been exacerbated by the net indebtedness to foreigners. The government of Japan carries a huge debt load without serious repercussions because most of it is in Yen and is owed to the citizens of Japan. It is interesting to note that the countries like China and India with strong culture for saving and reluctance to debt did not face this crisis because borrowers and defaulters were relatively few. The debt being local and in the country’s currency also helped.
It is in the interest of prosperous countries to save the economies of their less well off cousins – they need the markets for their products and services. The problems in Greece, Portugal, Ireland and elsewhere will eventually be resolved and the burden of debt on the governments and the individuals will be transferred from one lender in one form to the other in another form. But it will not be reduced to a sustainable level without unacceptable political risk. Therefore, the next crisis will be with us soon unless we, at all levels, develop a culture of conservatively evaluating our means before handing out the credit cards or going to the bank for a line of credit or a mortgage. This means restraining the consumer society and to engender a desire to make do with what we can afford rather than acquire bigger and flashier gizmos to keep up with our group. This has to be done by the businesses as well as the governments who have to limit their services and constrain the borrowings to the lending capacity of their national institutions. The countries currently in trouble joined the European Common Market (ECM) and accepted Euro as the common currency in the false hope that the adoption of the currency of Germany and France would overcome the handicaps of easy going culture and weaker industrial and resource base. It will help if southern European countries now take the drastic step and regain the flexibility in their economic policies by reverting to the independent national currencies which they surrendered either within or outside ECM. There is great reluctance among the governments to do so at this juncture. However, the protests on the streets of Athens, Madrid and Lisbon are gathering momentum and it is only a matter of time before these governments change their stance.
In Memoriam
Ravi Sharma was born with a silver pen in his fingers in 2001 when a letter appeared under his name in Canada’s national newspaper. For next six years more than one hundred of his submissions graced the pages of leading publications of the country. He met his premature, though anticipated, death in 2007 when editors started to question the authenticity of his work and cast doubt on his existence. Ravi’s ashes were recycled along with the manuscripts of his unpublished works.
Much to the chagrin of the editors, his name lives through the works they published.
Sunday, June 5, 2011
Pot calling the kettle black
Steve Coll (The Syrian problem, New Yorker, May 30) may be right about the cruelty of the leaders of Syria and Libya but one should look in the mirror before commenting on how others look. The U.S. has installed and supported in the past, and continues to do so today, worse dictators than Assad and Gaddafi. Mobutu and Pinochet were the creations of CIA and the Chinese rulers have not hesitated in shooting peaceful protestors and uprooting millions of their citizens with little compensation. Not only that, by Coll's own admission CIA continues to "covertly fund" and foment trouble in peaceful countries. With due respect, till the Americans have stopped supporting all dictators and sheikdoms and their government can make sensible laws like medicare stick and can pass a budget that can save the country from eventual bankruptcy, comments like Coll's amount to nothing more than a pot calling the kettle black.
Is stock market a casino?
I spend a lot of my time ‘playing the market’ as some would call it or ‘investing’ as I like to think of it. Several of my close friends have entrusted their retirement funds to me and I feel responsible for their well-being now and in the future. There is no way any responsible person will bet the life’s savings in a casino or on a horse no matter the odds given by a bookmaker. But I have placed whatever was put at my disposal in the common shares of publicly trading companies. I give a lot of thought to the construction of each portfolio and watch the performance almost daily, even when I am on a vacation. My friends expect no less.
The methodology and philosophy behind my ‘investments’ has been described elsewhere. The purpose here is to differentiate stock market with a casino and to point out what can make it like one. The all important difference with betting on a horse or on a roulette table is that buying common shares are NOT an all or nothing gamble. The shares often go down, to be honest almost as often as they go up, but it is rare that they disappear. You live another day even after a major shake down and the possibility of recovery is strong if the initial purchase was based on careful research. My experience over last forty years is that the biggest losers of this year are likely to be the big winners of next year. That is the main argument for buy and hold philosophy advocated by Warren Buffet.
Not to say that stock market can not become a casino. There is the obvious case of trusting your money to a version of now notorious but once admired Madoff who promises the earth and then disappears with your money or loses it altogether on extremely risky ventures and you are left with nothing. Similarly, you could buy an option to buy a stock at a certain price on a certain date and if the price is below your exercise price you have lost all your money. Only slightly better, and most common reason for ‘investors’ losing everything, is to leverage your money, in other words ‘margin’ your account, i.e. borrow from the broker to buy more stock than you have money for. When the market is on an upward tick you are laughing but on the day of a major downward shift you lose it all – all your gains and most of what you had to begin with and are lucky if you don’t end up owing broker some money. Margin accounts are promoted by brokers because they greater generate income: in interest charged on borrowed money as well as bigger commissions on higher trading volumes. Another way to lose most or all of your money: buy shares of a speculative venture recommended by your buddy in the bar and find that the venture never got off the ground and money disappeared as did the promoters.
If you have money but no intention to learn the ‘trade’ of investing on the stock market or in many of the other avenues, your have two options. First, put money in the saving account in a major bank. The interest after tax will not cover the inflation and the money will shrink in value but it will not disappear altogether unless the whole economy collapses. In that case it wouldn’t matter what you did. If you chose this option, please learn from the tragedy of Iceland banks and avoid foreign banks promising unrealistic interest rates. Other and better choice is to find a financial manager you can trust. This person must have been operating for at least a decade to have seen and learnt from the usual ups and downs of the market and should be either someone you know first hand and trust or an associate with a major institution which will cover your losses against dishonest practices. Check on the performance every few months and discuss the results with your advisor. If you are not satisfied, look around for recommendations and move the account to someone else. Doing nothing in such situation could be a recipe for disaster.
Seen on a church post:
When God saw you it was love on first sight.
A cynic's response: There is no accounting for some tastes.
You are getting old
When others enjoy the cool and you shiver.
Steve Coll (The Syrian problem, New Yorker, May 30) may be right about the cruelty of the leaders of Syria and Libya but one should look in the mirror before commenting on how others look. The U.S. has installed and supported in the past, and continues to do so today, worse dictators than Assad and Gaddafi. Mobutu and Pinochet were the creations of CIA and the Chinese rulers have not hesitated in shooting peaceful protestors and uprooting millions of their citizens with little compensation. Not only that, by Coll's own admission CIA continues to "covertly fund" and foment trouble in peaceful countries. With due respect, till the Americans have stopped supporting all dictators and sheikdoms and their government can make sensible laws like medicare stick and can pass a budget that can save the country from eventual bankruptcy, comments like Coll's amount to nothing more than a pot calling the kettle black.
Is stock market a casino?
I spend a lot of my time ‘playing the market’ as some would call it or ‘investing’ as I like to think of it. Several of my close friends have entrusted their retirement funds to me and I feel responsible for their well-being now and in the future. There is no way any responsible person will bet the life’s savings in a casino or on a horse no matter the odds given by a bookmaker. But I have placed whatever was put at my disposal in the common shares of publicly trading companies. I give a lot of thought to the construction of each portfolio and watch the performance almost daily, even when I am on a vacation. My friends expect no less.
The methodology and philosophy behind my ‘investments’ has been described elsewhere. The purpose here is to differentiate stock market with a casino and to point out what can make it like one. The all important difference with betting on a horse or on a roulette table is that buying common shares are NOT an all or nothing gamble. The shares often go down, to be honest almost as often as they go up, but it is rare that they disappear. You live another day even after a major shake down and the possibility of recovery is strong if the initial purchase was based on careful research. My experience over last forty years is that the biggest losers of this year are likely to be the big winners of next year. That is the main argument for buy and hold philosophy advocated by Warren Buffet.
Not to say that stock market can not become a casino. There is the obvious case of trusting your money to a version of now notorious but once admired Madoff who promises the earth and then disappears with your money or loses it altogether on extremely risky ventures and you are left with nothing. Similarly, you could buy an option to buy a stock at a certain price on a certain date and if the price is below your exercise price you have lost all your money. Only slightly better, and most common reason for ‘investors’ losing everything, is to leverage your money, in other words ‘margin’ your account, i.e. borrow from the broker to buy more stock than you have money for. When the market is on an upward tick you are laughing but on the day of a major downward shift you lose it all – all your gains and most of what you had to begin with and are lucky if you don’t end up owing broker some money. Margin accounts are promoted by brokers because they greater generate income: in interest charged on borrowed money as well as bigger commissions on higher trading volumes. Another way to lose most or all of your money: buy shares of a speculative venture recommended by your buddy in the bar and find that the venture never got off the ground and money disappeared as did the promoters.
If you have money but no intention to learn the ‘trade’ of investing on the stock market or in many of the other avenues, your have two options. First, put money in the saving account in a major bank. The interest after tax will not cover the inflation and the money will shrink in value but it will not disappear altogether unless the whole economy collapses. In that case it wouldn’t matter what you did. If you chose this option, please learn from the tragedy of Iceland banks and avoid foreign banks promising unrealistic interest rates. Other and better choice is to find a financial manager you can trust. This person must have been operating for at least a decade to have seen and learnt from the usual ups and downs of the market and should be either someone you know first hand and trust or an associate with a major institution which will cover your losses against dishonest practices. Check on the performance every few months and discuss the results with your advisor. If you are not satisfied, look around for recommendations and move the account to someone else. Doing nothing in such situation could be a recipe for disaster.
Seen on a church post:
When God saw you it was love on first sight.
A cynic's response: There is no accounting for some tastes.
You are getting old
When others enjoy the cool and you shiver.
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